Highlights
- A dedicated fan has collected data on the gacha rates of Zonai Dispensers in the game Tears Of The Kingdom, providing players with a way to secure desired parts without relying on luck.
- The fan visited every known dispenser in Hyrule, rolling 10 times for items to collect data, and then used a Bayesian statistical model to calculate the probabilities of each dispenser's distribution.
- Now players can easily find the locations of dispensers with the highest probability of the desired item on an interactive map integrated into the statistics, saving them time and frustration.
An avid Tears Of The Kingdom fan, who goes by the name JaggedParadigm on reddit, has meticulously compiled accurate statistics detailing the gacha rates of every Zonai Dispenser in the game. This effort allows fans to reduce uncertainty and secure their desired Zonai parts from these dispensers without the interference of RNG or luck.
The way they did this is by visiting every known dispenser in Hyrule and rolling 10 times for items to collect data on the items the dispenser was giving out. They then ran the data through a Bayesian statistical model to turn the probability of each dispenser's distribution into actual numbers and percentages. The user also integrated the results into an interactive map, making it easy for anyone to benefit from the research.
What you actually need to do is go to this link and, as the user explained, click on the rightmost distribution graph for any item you want. A button called 'see location' will pop up, and if you click it, it will instantly take you to the Zeldadungeon.net interactive map. There you can find the location of the dispensing machine with the highest probability of the item you chose.
It should be noted that this Bayesian model takes into account that not every item has the same drop rate regardless of the dispenser, which was a surprise even to us. And because of this fact, there must have been a lot of players who wasted their time on certain dispensers that probably wouldn't help them get the specific items they wanted.
This Excel spreadsheet (made by user TarnishedSpreadsheet) makes the numbers clearer. As we can see from the first two rows, the battery in the Bravery Island dispenser has a 30% chance of showing up, while the battery in the South Eldin Sky Archipelago dispenser has only a 20% chance. So it really does seem to save time to look at these graphs and numbers before deciding which Zonai dispenser to use.
There are some assumptions made in this calculation model that may not be entirely accurate and need further testing, such as ignoring the effect of the item placed in the dispenser on the draw probabilities, the time of day, the presence or absence of a blood moon, and so on. But so far it seems to work accurately for its intended purpose.